The secondary market has seen a significant decline since mid-2022. Furthermore, sales of new watches have slowed since the beginning of this year. Amidst this, perhaps the only thing maintaining a presence is not classic watches, but quiet, understated timepieces. Let's explore this through comments from industry insiders and market trends.
[An Introduction to Quiet Watches] "Quiet luxury is the ultimate form of self-satisfaction."
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Edited by Hiroyuki Suzuki
[Article published in the July 2024 issue of Kronos Japan]
The growing interest in "quiet luxury" in the secondary market.
Since 2015, the watch industry has focused on the luxury sports watch genre. While this was effective in broadening the market base, it cannot be denied that the boom became overheated. Of course, "luxury sports" will continue to be the mainstream of the watch industry. However, some consumers are growing tired of luxury sports, which is creating a new trend in the watch market. This trend is a return to dress watches and an increased focus on quiet luxury.
Alexandre Godby, head of watch operations in Geneva and the Middle East at Phillips Auctions, says: "I'm noticing a decline in popularity for sports and leisure watches, as well as oversized watches. Personally, I'm still not drawn to classic dress watches, but I am fascinated by small, well-designed watches."
If we follow Godby's words, the tide turned 18 months ago. It's interesting that this coincides with the timeframe pointed out by Chopard co-president Karl-Friedrich Scheufele and Parmigiani Fleurier CEO Guido Terreni. Shrewd people are sensing that the luxury sports car boom is at least starting to die down.
Chrono24's "ChronoPulse" provides price trends for major collections from 13 prominent brands. According to this data, prices in the secondary market surged by approximately 1.83 times from January 1, 2019, to the end of March 2022. However, prices have since fallen, dropping to approximately 1.38 times by the end of September 2024. Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet, in particular, saw significant declines; the former's price, which had inflated to approximately 3.15 times, fell to about 1.85 times, while the latter's price, which had risen to approximately 3.4 times, fell to 1.92 times. In addition, the prices of so-called luxury sports watches have fallen even more sharply. Although actual market prices remain high, the data clearly indicates that the so-called luxury sports watch boom is subsiding.
What's interesting is the trend of Cartier and Jaeger-LeCoultre. These two brands, which are relatively quiet within the ChronoPulse market, have consistently seen their secondary market prices continue to rise. Comparing January 1, 2019 to now, Cartier's price has increased by approximately 1.45 times, and Jaeger-LeCoultre's by approximately 1.29 times. While the rate of increase is not as high as other brands, the fact that there has been no decline and prices have consistently risen is a major difference from other companies. One could say they "missed the luxury sports watch boom," but it is an undeniable fact that they have been largely unaffected by the market's sharp decline since 2022.
This trend is even more pronounced with more niche and quieter models. Of the 70 models offered at the Philippe Geneva auction in September 2024, only 31 exceeded their estimated selling price. Amidst the generally subdued market, the Parmigiani Fleurier "Trick Chronograph" sold for a staggering 19,050 Swiss francs, far exceeding expectations. The "Reverso 40th Anniversary Edition," released in 2002, also sold for more than 2.5 times its estimated price. It's a stark contrast to the past when such "quiet" watches fetched virtually no price.
Frankly, it's unclear how long the current surge in interest in dress watches and quiet luxury will last. However, at the very least, quiet watches are now being valued and command a price in the secondary market.
