Since 1995, I have covered exhibitions of various Japanese and Swiss brands, as well as new product trade fairs held in Switzerland, and have watched their growth and development for over 30 years. Among these, 2025, in particular, was a year heavily impacted by "Trump tariffs," and I believe it was a significant turning point for the Swiss watch industry. Therefore, based on official data from the Swiss watch industry from 2000 to 2024, I have calmly reviewed the current state of the global and Swiss watch industry over these 25 years (for 2025, which was such a special year, I will only present the latest data). This reveals how Swiss watches have developed over the past quarter-century. I highly recommend this to anyone working in the watch industry or interested in it.
Text by Yasuhito Shibuya
[Article published on January 1, 2026]
Unraveling the watch market of the 2000s
Mechanical watches were treated as "outdated relics" during the quartz crisis of the 1970s. However, in the 1980s, Switzerland redefined mechanical watches through the restructuring of its watch industry and a luxury strategy, redefining them as "works of art that condense traditional craftsmanship" and "luxury items worthy of being passed down through generations." As a result, the 1990s saw a "mechanical watch boom" with complicated timepieces as its flagship product, which developed into a "luxury watch boom" in the 2000s. Mechanical watches came to be recognized as "luxury items that are produced in small quantities and are expensive, but are coveted by people all over the world and are something everyone wants to own," and the Swiss watch industry has steadily grown for the past half-century. Today, it is experiencing its greatest prosperity in history, far surpassing the golden age of the 1950s.
So, how much has the Swiss and global watch market—that is, the market size of the watch industry—expanded? And which country's watch market has grown the most? I don't recall reading any articles, domestic or international, that have examined this point. If that's the case, then perhaps I, having covered this topic for over 30 years, am the one who can provide the answer based on data from the Swiss Watch Federation (FH). Therefore, I compared and analyzed the performance over the 25 years from 2000 to 2024.
Specifically, I referred to the total value of watch exports by country (factory price) published by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH), and compared the figures for the top 10 countries in 10-year increments since 2000. Simply put, these figures show "how many Swiss watches were exported to which countries." However, in the case of fashion items, the factory price in these figures is at most about 30% of the product price. In other words, if we consider it on a sales price basis, the market size would be about three times this amount.
The results were largely as expected, but there were also many surprising twists. This is the real reality and factual picture of the global watch market over the past 25 years.
Incidentally, the following are the top 10 countries and regions by total export value for 2025, as recently announced. This data includes all watch-related items, not just wristwatches. However, as of March 10th, when this article is being written, no breakdown has been released, and the overall change in Switzerland's export value to the world is only a slight decrease of 1.7%, with no major changes except for China and Hong Kong. The ranking of exports to Japan has risen from 3rd in 2024 to 2nd, but the overall situation remains unchanged. Therefore, I would like you to pay attention to the fact that the export value and share to the United States are outstanding in this data.
The global watch market has grown 25 times in the last 2.5 years!
First, let's look at the total global shipment value of Swiss watches.
2000: 10,029,700,000 Swiss francs
2010: 25.9931 billion Swiss francs (+61.2%)
2020: 25.9931 billion Swiss francs (+69.5%)
2024: 25.9931 billion Swiss francs (+159.1%)
2025: 25.5542 billion Swiss francs (+154.8%)
The percentages in parentheses represent how much the market has expanded since 2000, that is, how much it has expanded from 2000, which is set as 100. Note that, since the purpose here is to observe market growth, currency-specific variables such as exchange rates are excluded, and the calculation is based solely on export figures from Switzerland.
The market grew approximately 1.6 times in the 11 years between 2000 and 2010. Although there were ups and downs afterward, the figures remained relatively flat until 2020. However, it grew significantly from 2021 onward, reaching a 150% increase by 2025, meaning the global market expanded to approximately 2.5 times its original size from 2000. This expansion can undoubtedly be attributed to a bubble caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, where wealthy individuals shifted their travel spending towards luxury watches.
Is China the fastest-growing market!?
So, which country has experienced the most dramatic growth in the last 25 years? Anyone involved in the watch industry would immediately think of China.
Value of watch exports to China
2000: 4500 million Swiss francs
2010: 25.5542 billion Swiss francs (+2344.7%)
2020: 25.5542 billion Swiss francs (+5221.6%)
2024: 25.5542 billion Swiss francs (+4463.3%)
Looking at the trend in export value, the Chinese watch market has grown approximately 45.6 times in the last 25 years. However, it would be a mistake to simply accept the numbers as they are. This is because (as has been pointed out before) the figures for the Hong Kong market, which is the "gateway to the Chinese economy," are missing from this analysis.
After all, Hong Kong has consistently been one of the top three export destinations for Swiss watches from the 2000s until 2023, remaining a major market. In the 2024 export value rankings, it is fourth, following the United States, China, and Japan, but in 2000 it was second, and at times even the top.
Of course, not all exports to the Hong Kong market are re-exported to mainland China. However, I felt firsthand at Watches & Wonders Hong Kong in 2014 and 2015 that a large portion of them are destined for the Chinese market. In 2014, Hong Kong was in the midst of the "Umbrella Movement," a movement demanding that the Chinese government uphold the promises made to citizens regarding their democratic rights at the time of the handover from Britain. When I went to the venue, passing by roads occupied by citizens, there were very few people. I was told that this was because "customers invited from mainland China had not shown up." True to those words, the venue in 2015, the year after the movement was suppressed and brought to an end, was overflowing with customers from mainland China.
First, let's look at the figure of 450 million Swiss francs in 2000. It's natural to assume that this figure was from a time when the market was not yet established. So, when did the mainland Chinese market truly take off?
Checking the data on the Swiss Watch Federation (FH) website, we find that in 2000, China wasn't even in the top 15 of the total export rankings. China didn't appear in this ranking until 2003, when it was ranked 11th. Compared to the previous year, 2002, this was a 109.3% increase. In other words, it doubled in just one year. It was around this time that the Chinese market finally started to take off.
So, if we recalculate using Hong Kong plus China, the result is as follows.
2000: 1468.2
2010: 4285.6 (+191.9%)
2020: 4091.8 (+178.7%)
2024: 3968.4 (+170.3%)
The growth of the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong markets since 2000 has been approximately 2.7 times. This is roughly in line with the growth of the global market, which has increased by approximately 2.5 times. In other words, the idea that the Chinese market suddenly experienced explosive growth is a "misunderstanding." In fact, even back in 2000, the Chinese market was already among the top three through its gateway, Hong Kong. It was simply not visible because it was tallied separately from the Hong Kong market. It's not as if only Chinese people suddenly started buying up luxury watches.
Shortly before 2010, the Richemont Group's market share in China and Hong Kong exceeded 50%. Regarding this situation, the group's chairman, Johann Rupert, expressed concern about the excessive reliance on the Chinese and Hong Kong markets in a media interview, stating, "We eat in the vestibule of the Chinese market." Speaking with self-reflection, we were misled by sensational reporting on the Chinese market, such as this statement.
The fastest-growing markets were the UAE and Singapore.
So, which watch market has grown the most since 2000, in terms of growth rate? It's the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Singapore. In 2024, the UAE was up 604.6%, and Singapore was up 283.5%. In other words, the markets have grown approximately seven times and four times, respectively. For comparison, Japan's growth was 111.8%, or about 2.1 times.
However, the Chinese watch market, encompassing mainland China and Hong Kong, is still slightly smaller than the US market in 2024, but twice the size of the third-largest market, Japan. The US and China account for 32% of the global watch market. Mainland China and Hong Kong remain huge and important.
The Trump administration's unusual tariff policies and tax cuts that heavily favor the wealthy may temporarily strengthen America's position in the watch market. However, in the long term, this will disrupt manufacturing and logistics systems, and sales are likely to decline significantly in the coming years.
Meanwhile, what does the future hold for China, which has historically driven the market but is currently experiencing a prolonged recession?
In response to the 2008 Lehman Shock, China implemented a 4 trillion yuan (approximately 57 trillion yen) economic stimulus package. As a result, domestic and international consumption increased significantly, and the Chinese watch market expanded further in the 2010s. It became the world's No. 1 watch market, with over 50% of Swiss luxury watches being shipped to the Chinese and Hong Kong markets.
However, in recent years, both mainland China and Hong Kong have seen the collapse of their real estate bubbles, which were central to economic stimulus measures. This has triggered a prolonged recession, leading to a decline in demand for luxury watches. This situation is likely to continue for some time. However, considering its population, there should still be considerable potential demand in China. Moreover, the demand for luxury watches is particularly solid among luxury items. If the recession subsides, even if it is difficult for China to regain its No. 1 position in the world, given its national size, it should not fall below Japan, which is currently No. 3. Together with Hong Kong, it will undoubtedly continue to reign among the top three. In short, the Chinese market will continue to be an important market for Swiss watches and for Japanese watch-related companies.
Furthermore, there is potential for a luxury watch boom in two major countries not mentioned in the 2024 Swiss watch export rankings mentioned at the beginning. These are India and Indonesia. These are huge markets comparable to China in terms of population size, and unlike China, which is facing a declining birthrate and an aging population, these countries are expected to develop rapidly. According to a luxury watch importer and distributor I met in Geneva, India in particular is already showing considerable momentum. If market development in these two countries is successful, the Swiss luxury watch market has even more potential for growth.
I'm very interested and excited to see what kind of watches Swiss watch brands will develop and release with the Indian and Indonesian markets in mind.
Author Profile
Shibuya Yasuhito
As an editor of a product information magazine, he began covering Geneva and Basel in 1995. He has been busy as both an editor and writer, and before he knew it, 2019 was his 25th year. He is currently planning, covering, editing, and writing about not only smartwatches, but also all kinds of things and events other than watches.
