[Reprinted from the May 2018 issue of Kronos Japan]
Photographs by John Goldberger
Text by Davide Munari
Text by Davidé Munari
It's very difficult to get an accurate reading of the current state of the vintage watch market, as the public, auction observers, and even vintage watch collectors are regularly bombarded with news headlines highlighting the astonishing prices that auctions have fetched for certain watches.
In recent years, these headlines have focused on the dramatic price increases achieved for vintage Rolex Cosmograph Daytonas, primarily at public auctions. Given their relative quality and rarity, Daytonas, especially those with "Paul Newman" dials, now command unimaginably high prices. This surge in prices is the result of dealers "getting it" by fitting loose "Paul Newman" dials into contemporary Daytona cases; many vintage manual-winding Daytonas were never produced in the form currently in circulation. This is due in part to Rolex's failure to share information from its archives with the market, and as a result, the most common conversation among dealers has become one of right and wrong. Because the "Paul Newman" Daytona is both a cool icon for everyday wear and an instantly recognizable status symbol, it consistently tops the shopping list of even the wealthiest, first-time buyers recently entering the world of vintage watches. Reputable media headlines reporting Select Auction results reinforce these preferences, and dealers are happy to acquire these pieces, often "gotcha" watches, to satisfy their demand.
The Phillips watch division, led by Aurel Bacs, and working with experts such as Daytona expert Pucci Papale, glorify the watches with incredibly professionally taken photographs, text-filled catalogs, and the most beautifully "put-together" watches, which they then market and sell to a wealthy, brainwashed new buyer base.
It is very difficult to get an accurate read on the current state of the vintage watch market. Casual laymen, observers, and even collectors of vintage watches are periodically inundated with news headlines highlighting the incredible prices achieved by certain watches at auctions.
In recent years, some of these headline-making watches have been vintage Rolex Daytonas, solely due to the large increase in prices achieved at public auctions. For serious and experienced collectors, dealers, and even scholars with skin in the game, current prices are unimaginably high considering the relative quality and rarity of these watches, particularly the Daytonas with so called “Paul Newman” dials. Many of the examples changing hands in the worldwide market today are “put together” watches, with dealers putting loose “Paul Newman” dials into “period correct” cases, for a very large percentage of these vintage manual-wind Daytonas were not born in their present configurations.
Due to the fact that Rolex does not share archive information with the market, what is “correct” versus what isn't, is most often one dealer's word against another's. For the moneyed novice buyer getting into vintage watches in recent times, the watch consistently at the top of the shopping list has been the “Paul Newman” Daytona: it is instantly recognizable on the wrist as a cool icon and status symbol, even to the general public. Popular media headlines broadcasting select auction results tend to reinforce this perception of desirability. Dealers are happy to procure, or in many cases “assemble” these watches, to feed the demand.
The watch department at Phillips, led by Aurel Bacs, is working with scholars such as Daytona expert Pucci Papaleo to package, market, and sell the most beautifully “put-together” examples to deep-pocketed new buyers hypnotized by catalogs filled with amazing, professionally taken photographs and language glorifying the watches.
“Oyster Moonphase Ref.6062,” which is outstanding in rarity and quality among vintage Rolex watches.
Will the white gold vintage Daytonas at the Phillips "Daytona Ultimatum" sale in May fetch record prices? Time will tell. However, these Daytonas are mass-produced chronographs with Valjoux 72-based movements and dials crafted using what is aptly described as "industrial printing." As such, prices for vintage Daytonas are unlikely to remain at their current levels forever, especially when compared to rarer, higher-quality, and more important models. Examples of such models within the vintage Rolex lineup include the Oyster Moonphase Ref. 6062, the Dato Compax "Jean-Claude Killy," and early chronographs from the 1930s and 1940s. Prices for vintage Daytonas may remain "irrational" for a long time. However, in the long run, traditional, important models with exceptional aesthetics, quality, and rarity from legendary Swiss manufacturers such as Patek Philippe, Vacheron Constantin, Audemars Piguet, and Longines will command higher prices.
There's no doubt that the appreciation and appreciation of vintage watches has been and will continue to be extremely powerful in the foreseeable future, thanks to watch blogs like Hodinkee and key tastemakers like John Goldberger. Under their influence, certain vintage watches have evolved from expensive accessories to decorative pieces with artistic value, naturally attracting significant investment. And they should daily remind their owners that to own a rare, beautiful, high-quality vintage watch is to own not just a timepiece, but an incredible synthesis of centuries of human wisdom in culture, creativity, and the arts.
How much longer can the merry circus last for vintage Rolex Daytonas? No one can know for sure, but Yours Truly cannot but be amused by a recent anecdote; a local taxi driver asked if I had a Paul Newman Daytona in the collection once he discovered through our nonchalant banter that I liked vintage watches. Can the Phillips Daytona Ultimatum sale this May mark the climax for vintage Daytona prices? Time will tell. But for a mass-produced chronograph wristwatch with a movement based on Valjoux 72 and dial graphics made by methods quite aptly described as “industrial printing,” with a production number totaling many tens of thousands (for manual wind Daytonas, all references combined), perhaps prices cannot stay at current levels forever, at least relative to other much rarer, higher quality, and arguably much more important models. Within the vintage Rolex lineup, these watches include the Oyster moon phase reference 6062, the Datocompax “Jean Claude Killy,” and early chronographs made in the 1930s and 1940s. Prices can stay “irrational” for extended periods of time, but in the very long term, watches of great aesthetics, quality, and rarity should, rationally, achieve higher prices, including important models made by other fabled Swiss manufacturers such as Patek Philipe, Vacheron Constantin, Audemars Piguet, and Longines in the past.
There is no question that the broad trend of rising appreciation and connoisseurship in vintage watches is very much in force, and will likely remain so in the foreseeable future, thanks to watch blog phenomena like Hodinkee and important taste-making scholars such as John Goldberger. Under their influence, certain vintage watches have evolved from precious accessories to objets d'art and serious investments, perhaps rightfully so, because a rare, beautiful vintage watch of high quality doesn't just measure time, but is a daily reminder to its owner that he possesses an incredible object synthesizing centuries of human genius in culture, craft, and art.
Daytona “Paul Newman Dial,” which is famous because the actor Paul Newmon wore it frequently.
What should we collect in today's soaring vintage watch market? Assuming your target is a Rolex and the one for sale is in relatively good condition, would you buy a Reference 6263 with a Paul Newman "RCO" dial? Or a Reference 6239 "Stelline," a Daytona Reference 6239, or a chronograph from the 30s or early 40s? If Rolex were like Picasso, and were priced at the same price as a Picasso painting, would you buy a Picasso print from the 60s or an oil painting from the 40s or earlier? Trends come and go, and extreme emotions and fashions can swing back and forth. For collectors investing significant amounts of money in watches, it's crucial to have a basic appreciation for the inherent value of objects. Therefore, developing an eye for condition and originality is also crucial for today's collectors and watch enthusiasts. If the majority of collectors have this kind of eye, there will surely come a day when vintage watches in near-original condition will fetch higher prices than those of lower quality or in "discreditable" condition.
At current price levels for vintage watches, what are the ones to collect? If Rolex - arguably the most important maker of wristwatches in history - is your target as a collector, what are the models to buy? Assuming comparable conditions, do you buy a ref. 6263 with Paul Newman “RCO” dial or do you buy a ref. 6062 “Stelline”? Do you buy a Daytona ref. 6239 or do you buy an early chronograph from the 1930s or 1940s? If Rolex was Picasso, do you buy a 1960s print or a pre-1940 oil, assuming, for a brief moment, that prices were the same? From here, how will prices evolve not only for vintage watches as a whole but, more interestingly, between different models? Trends come and go and extremes in sentiment and fashion always swing back the other way.
It is crucial to have a basic sense of the inherent “worth” of an object as a collecting serious amounts of capital in a watch. For today's collectors and enthusiasts, not only is it crucial to choose the right models, it is just as important to develop an educated eye for condition and originality. It is my firm belief that the “quality premium” will get even larger in the future. For a given reference, an example in better, more original condition will appreciate much more quickly than one in lesser or “compromised” condition: it will get exponentially difficult to find top condition examples of important models as most have disappeared into private collections.
A collector and investor with numerous rare pieces, he has many acquaintances in the watch industry and auctioneers, and boasts extensive knowledge. He is one of the few people in the world who can view watches worth tens to hundreds of millions of yen at auctions from the perspective of an actual buyer, rather than an investment.
International connoisseur and collector of important wrist and pocket watches.
