Watch Journalist Yasuhito Shibuya's Useful Watch Industry Chat
The coronavirus crisis is deepening worldwide, with infections exploding in New York in the United States and a state of emergency being declared in major metropolitan areas such as Tokyo on April 7th in Japan.
In my previous column, I reported that Rolex was one of the first to close all of its factories in mid-March. Over three weeks have passed since then, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has continued to grow, ultimately wiping out the watch market in 2020.
Cancellation of 2020 new releases
As reported by Western watch industry media and some financial media, Patek Philippe, Rolex (and Tudor), the top Swiss watch brands, have decided to "cancel" the release of new products for 2020. In reality, they have been postponed for the time being, but for those in the watch industry, especially those on the front lines of retail, nothing could be more shocking.
Patek Philippe Japan had originally planned to launch a new model in Japan in May. However, with the spread of infection still far from over even in May, and the Swiss headquarters already closed, everything came to a halt. The headquarters then decided to postpone the launch of the new model.
As mentioned above, Rolex (and Tudor)'s "postponement of new releases" is only natural, given their excellent crisis management system, as seen in their early decision to close factories, the global spread of the virus, and the increasing number of infected people and casualties. It is not surprising that more watch brands will make similar decisions in the future. 2020 may effectively be a "blank year" for the watch industry, both in terms of manufacturing and sales.
As the aforementioned Western media also pointed out, the indefinite postponement of new product announcements by two major brands is a new development that could determine the fate of Swiss watch fairs in the future.
The two brands have previously expressed their support and cooperation with the Baselworld Secretariat. If they choose Baselworld 2021, scheduled to be held at the end of January 2021, as the venue for their new releases, it will mean that Baselworld has to some extent recognized its significance and value in the watch industry, and with ambitious new initiatives such as the auction house's first appearance at the event, its lifespan, which was nearing its end, may be extended.
However, if they were to launch their own new products before Baselworld 2021 at the end of January next year, the fair's value would be further diminished, despite the efforts of its secretariat thus far, and it would be extremely difficult for the fair to continue beyond 2022. In other words, the fate of Baselworld depends more than ever on these two companies and three brands.
