The market prices of some popular models that had continued to soar have begun to fall, and some are expressing pessimism about the watch market. In this article, Sharon Chan, director of the watch department at the long-established auction house Bonhams Hong Kong, examines the current state of the watch market, which at first glance appears to be in a slump, from the perspective of an auctioneer.
Text by Sharon Chan (Bonhams Hong Kong)
(Article published on October 9, 2022)
Crisis and opportunity in the watch market
Recently, a series of reports about falling watch market prices have created a sense of pessimism for the entire watch market. In fact, many buyers have shied away. Is now a bad time for the watch market?
Not really, as Tim Stracke, CEO of Chrono24, an online marketplace specializing in luxury watches, recently revealed that despite the current market downturn, collector demand for watches continues to grow. In my opinion, there is still plenty of value in collecting watches, even in today's climate.
The current global financial and economic outlook is uncertain, and it is having a major impact on the watch market. The key to this is the most basic market dynamic: supply and demand. In the past, the market prices of some popular models soared, causing many sellers to flood the market and creating an oversupply. However, due to the unstable stock market, inflation, and the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine, demand decreased and sellers lowered their prices.
Automatic movement (Cal. 4130). 44 jewels. 28,800 vph. Power reserve approximately 72 hours. Stainless steel case (40mm diameter). Water resistant to 100m. Price: 957,000 yen (tax included).
Even with the slowdown in the pre-owned market, however, the market price of some popular models remains higher than their list price. For example, the pre-owned price of a Rolex Oyster Perpetual Cosmograph Daytona Ref. 116500LN with a ceramic bezel and white dial has fallen from HK$360,000 (approximately JPY 6,649,000, 1 HK$ = JPY 18.47, as of October 7, 2022) to HK$270,000 (approximately JPY 4,987,000), but it's still more than double the list price. The Patek Philippe Nautilus Ref. 5711/1A, which currently fluctuates around HK$1 million, was priced at well over five times its list price at its peak.
More importantly, the price reductions have significantly increased purchasing power among watch enthusiasts and collectors, and the extremely long waiting lists for popular models in boutiques are testament to the thriving market.
This example was put up for auction at Bonhams' online auction, held from July 25th to August 3rd, 2022. It is a 2009 model, and the movement is stamped with the Geneva Seal. Lot number: 543. Successful bid: HK$948,000 (approximately JPY 1751 million), including buyer's premium.
In the secondhand market, sales of well-known and popular models such as Breitling, Cartier, and especially the Omega Speedmaster appear to be steadily increasing. The Speedmaster has had a loyal following since its inception, and the MoonSwatch, a collaboration model with Swatch that went on sale on March 26, 2022, is still fetching high prices, with almost every model in the collection a huge hit. Looking at the sales situation at Wempe, one of the world's leading watch retailers, the Girard-Perregaux Laureato collection and Tudor Black Bay Pro, which previously received little attention, are popular, with some models taking several months to obtain.
On the other hand, with the market for some popular models currently in decline, there are concerns that investors who took advantage of short-term speculation may have been affected. However, watch collecting is all about personal passion, and in the long run, not only will a new generation of watch collectors be born, but watch enthusiasts will also be increasing in mainland China, Malaysia, and even South America, and the overall watch market will continue to grow. Increased demand means greater potential.
Author "Sharon Chan" Profile
Sharon Chan is Director of Bonhams' Watch Department in Asia. Based in Hong Kong, she works closely with offices across the Asia Pacific region and oversees the department's 10 auctions per year.
Before returning to the auction business and joining Bonhams in 2017-18, he expanded his professional career, running a private watch business and client consulting. With his extensive experience, he has strong connections with collectors around the world and is playing a key role in expanding the watch market in Asia.
He has over 17 years of experience in the jewelry and watch auction business at various international auction houses, and from 2011 to 2016 he oversaw the watch auction in Hong Kong, where he achieved year-on-year growth in sales, achieving the highest price for a watch sale in Asia in 2013. He also oversaw one of the world's largest private watch collections, setting a new record of US$600 million at auction in 2015.
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