An overseas auctioneer analyzes the major changes seen in the watch market during the COVID-19 pandemic

The watch market, which has seen great growth over the past few years, is currently being affected by the ongoing global spread of COVID-3. In this article, Sharon Chan, Director of the Watch Department at the long-established auction house Bonhams Hong Kong, analyzes the changes in the watch market over the past three years based on the results of watch auctions.

The watch market is very different from three years ago

　The COVID-19 pandemic has been ongoing for at least three years, and its effects are still not over. Over the past three years, the pre-owned watch market has seen many ups and downs.

　Thanks to the Bonhams watch auction, I had the opportunity to meet watch collectors outside of Hong Kong face-to-face for the first time in three years. What's interesting is that, even though collectors are still keen to buy and sell watches, the state of the watch market is very different from three years ago.

　Throughout the nearly two years of the COVID-2 pandemic, auction buyers recognized the long-term value of fine art and contemporary art, and the international market remained fairly stable and unaffected by external factors even amid the pandemic crisis.

　The pre-owned watch market has seen new excitement in recent years, with rare timepieces fetching record prices. However, the first half of 2022 saw the war between Russia and Ukraine and global inflation hit international stock markets, leaving many watch buyers feeling uncertain, and at the same time, prices for popular models fluctuated.

　For example, the Rolex Oyster Perpetual Cosmograph Daytona Ref. 116508, which combines a green dial with an 18K yellow gold case, was priced at over 1 million Hong Kong dollars (approximately 1698 million yen, 1 Hong Kong dollar = 16.98 yen, as of December 20, 2022) at its peak, but is now around 600,000 Hong Kong dollars (1019 million yen). Similarly, the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 50th Anniversary model Ref. 26240 started at nearly 2 million Hong Kong dollars (approximately 3396 million yen), but has fallen to around 12 million Hong Kong dollars (approximately 2038 million yen) in the last few months.

　On the other hand, basic vintage models such as Rolex's Oyster Perpetual Datejust and Oysterdate are stable, and rare models such as the Oyster Perpetual Explorer II Ref. 1665 "Steve McQueen" will fetch high prices if they are in perfect condition with their box.

The key to its popularity is its rarity

　While there is a clear shift in buyers toward popular models, the rule that "rarity matters most" remains unchanged in the auction market, and rare models remain highly sought after. For example, at Bonhams' watch auction held on December 1, 2022, attention was focused on the Patek Philippe Minute Repeater Perpetual Calendar Ref. 5013, which was produced in only 20 pieces and has rarely appeared at auctions. It was sold for 29,011,000 Hong Kong dollars (approximately 492.74 million yen).

　In recent years, it seems that an increasing number of collectors are turning their attention to independent microbrands, and the two H. Moser & Cie. watches put up for auction were extremely popular. Perhaps due to rumors that the LVMH Group is planning to relaunch the brand, Daniel Roth's rare "Skeleton Chronograph" with a salmon dial model attracted unexpectedly high interest before the auction, and ultimately sold for a price exceeding the estimated bid of 108,375 Hong Kong dollars (184 million yen).

　In addition, an increasing number of women are showing interest in unisex models and men's watches, such as Patek Philippe's Aquanaut and A. Lange & Söhne's 1815, and women were seen trying on watches multiple times at the preview.

　Bonhams Hong Kong's 2022 watch auction was a success, recording the highest total value of any Bonhams watch sale in Asia in 16 years. This not only confirmed the position of the sub-HK$1000 million market, but also underscored the high demand for mid-range timepieces from watch enthusiasts, especially new and younger collectors.

　Currently, demand for mid-priced watches is on the rise. The watch market as a whole is in a slump, prices have become much more reasonable, and competition has eased a little compared to the past. Given this background, he advises that watch lovers should actively participate in auctions, set a budget in advance, and then place a bid, which will allow them to purchase a watch at a more reasonable price.

Author "Sharon Chan" Profile

　Sharon Chan is Director of Bonhams' Watch Department in Asia. Based in Hong Kong, she works closely with offices across the Asia Pacific region and oversees the department's 10 auctions per year.

　He has over 17 years of experience in the jewelry and watch auction business at various international auction houses, and from 2011 to 2016 he oversaw the watch auction in Hong Kong, where he achieved year-on-year growth in sales, achieving the highest price for a watch sale in Asia in 2013. He also oversaw one of the world's largest private watch collections, setting a new record of US$600 million at auction in 2015.

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