Over the past decade, the quality of watches has improved dramatically. We've seen the widespread adoption of in-house movements, major advances in bracelets and other exterior designs, and the emergence of colorful dials. Few watch industry insiders would deny that the so-called "watch bubble" was the prerequisite for these advances. However, in 2024, the environment surrounding the watch industry rapidly deteriorated. So, how will the nature of watches change in light of this?
Interview and text by Masayuki Hirota (Chronos Japan)
Edited by Yukiya Suzuki (Chronos Japan)
What trends will the watch industry be at a turning point in 2025?
At a watch fair in 2024, one insider said, "We actually have a major project lined up, but we haven't announced it because we foresaw the economic downturn. If the economy improves, we plan to release it in the second half of the year."
As he (or rather the group he belongs to) predicted, the environment surrounding the watch industry rapidly deteriorated. According to data released by the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH), "Swiss watch exports, which had shown a temporary recovery over the summer, fell sharply in September 2024. September's decline was the most significant this year, totaling 21 billion Swiss francs. The declines in China and Hong Kong were particularly notable, accounting for two-thirds of the decline."
Asia's decline was down 22.6% compared to the same month last year. Not only were major markets such as Hong Kong (down 34.6%), China (down 49.7%), and Singapore (down 13.9%) experiencing large declines, but South Korea (down 19.8%), Taiwan (down 29.8%), and Thailand (down 34.6%) also saw large declines. This trend was repeated in October, with China down 38.8% and Hong Kong down 14.8% (both compared to the same month last year). The stagnation in Asia, which accounts for half of Swiss watch exports, is casting a large shadow over the watch industry.
The trend seen in 24 was a move away from luxury sports watches and a revival of dress watches. To be more precise, it could be said that the trend towards so-called "luxury sports" watches has begun to swing back a little. At one point, it was said that 7% of watches priced over 3000 Swiss francs were made of stainless steel with an integrated bracelet, so it seems natural that consumers who were tired of that would turn their attention to classic watches.
This trend is likely to accelerate in 2025. There are three reasons for this. First, there is the economic downturn mentioned at the beginning. In this environment, conservative classics are what attract attention. Until last year, watches with investment value also attracted attention, but the used market fell sharply ahead of the new market. As models that were previously priced at a premium start to be traded below list price, it is no longer true that watches that rise in price necessarily sell well.
The other reason is rising prices. Not only in Japan, where the weak yen is a major issue, but also in other countries, people are starting to complain that watch prices have risen too much. This is why the Swiss watch industry has belatedly started calling on the government to lower the Swiss franc. Regardless of the reason, attention will likely be focused on affordable, basic watches.
And finally, just like last year, there's the aging of the baby boomer generation. Older collectors are shying away from heavy, complicated watches that are difficult to read. This is one reason why minute repeaters are gaining attention. However, simply being basic no longer appeals to consumers. This is why manufacturers are leaning toward modern classic designs and colorful dials. This trend was evident in 24, but will become even more pronounced in 25.
Another trend expected to emerge in 25 is the rise of small manufacturers. Despite the worsening economy, watches from small manufacturers continue to gain popularity. A major reason for this is that consumers who dislike uniform trends have begun to take notice. Also, with the spread of social media, quality products can now be widely recognized without the need for media advertising. In addition, quality has risen to a level that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. In other words, they have become an easy commodity for retailers to handle.
However, the biggest change expected to occur in 25 will be the widespread use of silicon balance springs. Silicon balance springs, which are non-magnetic and resistant to shocks, are a material that will significantly change the nature of mechanical watches. Once the patent expires in 25, silicon balance springs are likely to become standard equipment in luxury watches.
The economic downturn will likely have a major impact on trends in 25. The average price of a watch will likely fall. However, the quality of luxury watches, which have made a comeback as accessories, is unlikely to decline. In 25, each manufacturer will be faced with the perspective of consumers who have become so discerning that they are almost completely different from those who experienced the watch bubble.
After working as a salaryman, he began working as a watch journalist in 2004. He contributes to watch and lifestyle magazines both in Japan and overseas, and also serves as a lecturer at seminars and events for watch and luxury brands and retailers, and as a radio personality on the radio program "BEST ISHIDA presents Chronos Japan Edition Tick Tock Talk♪" (every Saturday night from 25:00 am to 25:30 am @TOKYO FM). He has interviewed numerous people involved in the watch industry, including CEOs and R&D and planning staff from companies based in Europe, including Switzerland, Germany, and France. He has been in his current position since 2016.
