2022 was the year of the global "watch bubble." What were its merits, demerits, and benefits?

2022 has been a year in which watches have garnered as much attention as they have in the past. The asset value of watches is a hot topic in the news, and it's now commonplace to see people lining up at watch stores to buy popular models. While we're currently in what could be called a "watch bubble," there are positives to this, too. These include the clearly improved appearance of watches and the qualitative deepening of the watch market.

The "watch bubble" that had various effects on the watch industry

　Since 2020, the watch industry has been affected by the COVID-22 pandemic. However, what brought about 2 was not a production cut or a recession, but a "watch bubble." The trigger was excess liquidity resulting from monetary easing, and the driving force behind this was not a stalling China, but the United States. According to data from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH), the value of Swiss watch exports to the United States has nearly doubled in two years. The already huge American market has expanded even further.

　Naturally, this watch boom has changed the nature of new releases. What is most noticeable is the concentration of popular manufacturers, models, colors, and genres. In addition, when it comes to limited edition models that are hard to get hold of, buyers are inevitably enthusiastic. Furthermore, when even "ordinary" people start to pay attention to watches, the barometer for purchasing rises and watches inevitably become popular. This is why Patek Philippe, Rolex, Audemars Piguet, and Richard Mille watches are finally becoming unavailable.

　For the same reason, popular models from various manufacturers quickly began to attract attention. Omega's "Speedmaster" and Tudor's "Ranger" are good examples. What's interesting is that color also became a factor. Contrary to expectations, new models with so-called ice blue or green dials became explosively popular. In addition, the genre itself began to gain popularity. Stylish stainless steel "luxury sports watches" are now dominating the luxury watch market.

The antithesis of micro-maisons and the boom in independent watchmakers

　On the other hand, watch enthusiasts who were not happy with this situation began to pay more attention to niche manufacturers and models than ever before. This domino effect of popularity could be said to have led to a boom in micro-maisons and independent watchmakers. Ironically, however, the niche watches that watch enthusiasts were interested in eventually began to attract the attention of many people due to their increased exposure.

　The focus of attention in 2022 was on independent watchmakers who had to suspend orders due to an overload of orders, and on micro-maisons with decade-long backlogs. However, 2022 was clearly a tough year for manufacturers who were unable to offer popular models or colors, or who were unable to create new products that appealed to watch enthusiasts.

What were the positive aspects of the “watch bubble”?

　The watch bubble has disrupted the watch market, but of course it has its positive aspects as well. One of these is colorful dials. This trend has been prominent since 2015, but it has become a major trend in 2022. The main reason for this is the unstable production system caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to stimulate demand, many watch manufacturers have had no choice but to change the dials of existing models rather than developing new movements. In addition, technological advances in recent years have made dial designs more diverse than ever before.

　In the past, many watch manufacturers were quite cautious about adopting colorful dials. If they were a hit, it was good, but if they weren't, it would be difficult to sell them all. However, the watch bubble significantly lowered this psychological barrier. In 2022, companies released a series of colorful limited edition models, which led to strong sales. Furthermore, some manufacturers began to further differentiate their watches visually by adorning the exterior with jewels in addition to the dial. Advances in manufacturing technology, combined with the watch bubble, significantly changed the appearance of watches. The fierce competition that accompanied the bubble also further improved the quality of new cases and bracelets.

　Another benefit is the qualitative deepening of the watch market. While the American market is an extreme example, there is no doubt that the watch bubble has attracted a previously unseen demographic to watches, and some of these people are now turning to quality. This is exemplified by watch auctions. Auctions that were once niche events that only attracted a few hundred people have now grown into major events that attract thousands. In other words, as the base of interest in watches has broadened, the peak has clearly become higher.

The future of the overheated watch market
Shifting from quantity to quality

　So how will the watch market change after 2023? The current overheated market is sure to cool down, especially in the United States. However, as a reaction to this, the market will likely move toward quality. The back-and-forth between quality and quantity that has been repeated in the watch market over the past 40 years is likely to become even more pronounced after 2023.

　The past two years of the watch market, especially 2022, have been a watch bubble, to put it mildly. However, in the long run, the benefits to the watch industry seem significant. At the very least, it can be said that watches with high-quality exteriors are one benefit that everyone can see.